RBA interest rate decision
Reserve Bank of Australia sets Australia interest rates.
The basics
The Reserve Bank of Australia decides the interest rate that sets the cost of borrowing across Australia. It raises rates to cool inflation and cuts them to support growth and jobs.
The decision comes with a statement explaining it, and often a press conference. Markets read both for hints about the next moves, which can matter more than the decision itself.
How to read the result
- Above the forecast
- A higher rate than expected, or a firmer message about inflation, often lifts the AUD and can weigh on Australian shares (ASX 200).
- Below the forecast
- A lower rate than expected, or a softer message, often weakens the AUD and can support Australian shares (ASX 200).
Going deeper
Most decisions are fully priced in by the day: the forecast is rarely wrong about the rate itself. The surprise is usually in the statement, the vote split or the projections, which show how many cuts or rises policymakers expect.
The Australian dollar also follows China’s economy and metal prices, as Australia exports iron ore and coal to China.
Watch AUD/USD for the currency's reaction, and government bond yields: a decision that moves expectations for later meetings moves two-year yields first.
FAQs
- Why can the price move the “wrong” way?
- Prices already reflect the forecast, so markets react to the surprise, not the number itself. Other parts of the same release, revisions to earlier months or other news in the same hour can outweigh the headline figure, and a first move often reverses within the hour.
- What does “priced in” mean?
- Traders have already bought or sold on what they expect, so when the expected decision arrives, there is little left to react to. Only the part nobody expected moves prices.
- Should I close my trade before the release?
- That is your decision; this page does not give advice. What is certain is that prices can jump in seconds around big releases, spreads widen, and a stop loss can close at a worse price than the one you set. Many traders check their position size and stop before the release.