US crude oil inventories
Weekly change in US oil stocks, from the EIA.
The basics
Every week the US government counts how much crude oil companies hold in storage. The report says how much that changed since the week before.
Think of it as the country’s oil pantry. If it fills up, there is more oil than buyers need right now; if it empties, demand is using oil faster than it arrives. Traders compare the change with the forecast, because prices already reflect the forecast.
How to read the result
- Above the forecast
- A rise in stocks, or a smaller fall than forecast, means looser supply. Oil prices often fall; USD/CAD often rises, as Canada exports oil.
- Below the forecast
- A bigger fall in stocks than forecast means tighter supply. Oil prices often rise; USD/CAD often falls.
Going deeper
The headline excludes the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The same report gives gasoline and distillate (diesel and heating oil) stocks, refinery use and implied demand; on some weeks those move prices more than crude.
Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI futures contract, matter for WTI in particular: low Cushing stocks can lift the nearest contract over later ones.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) publishes its own count on Tuesday evening. A big gap between the API figure and the forecast often moves prices before the official report, so the EIA figure is then judged against both.
FAQs
- Why can the price move the “wrong” way?
- Prices already reflect the forecast, so markets react to the surprise, not the number itself. Other parts of the same release, revisions to earlier months or other news in the same hour can outweigh the headline figure, and a first move often reverses within the hour.
- What is the difference between the API and EIA figures?
- The API is an industry group that surveys its members and publishes on Tuesday evening. The EIA is the government agency, with wider coverage, and publishes on Wednesday. The EIA figure is the official one; the two often differ by a million barrels or more.
- What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
- An emergency oil store held by the US government. It is reported separately and left out of the headline figure, so releases from it do not count as a fall in commercial stocks.
- Should I close my trade before the release?
- That is your decision; this page does not give advice. What is certain is that prices can jump in seconds around big releases, spreads widen, and a stop loss can close at a worse price than the one you set. Many traders check their position size and stop before the release.