US flash PMIs
Early survey of US business activity this month.
The basics
Purchasing managers at US companies are asked whether output, new orders, hiring and prices went up or down last month. The answers are combined into one index.
Above 50 means activity is growing; below 50 means it is shrinking. Because it comes out early in the month, it is one of the first readings of how the economy is doing.
How to read the result
- Above the forecast
- A reading above the forecast often lifts the US dollar.
- Below the forecast
- A reading below the forecast often weakens the US dollar.
Going deeper
“Flash” means an early estimate from most of the survey; the final reading a week later rarely changes much. The ISM surveys usually move markets more.
FAQs
- Why can the price move the “wrong” way?
- Prices already reflect the forecast, so markets react to the surprise, not the number itself. Other parts of the same release, revisions to earlier months or other news in the same hour can outweigh the headline figure, and a first move often reverses within the hour.
- Should I close my trade before the release?
- That is your decision; this page does not give advice. What is certain is that prices can jump in seconds around big releases, spreads widen, and a stop loss can close at a worse price than the one you set. Many traders check their position size and stop before the release.