Central bank speeches
A policymaker speaks; hints about rates can move markets.
The basics
When people who set interest rates speak, markets listen for hints about the next decisions. There is no number to compare: what matters is whether they sound more worried about inflation or about growth.
Markets compare each figure with its forecast: prices already reflect the forecast, so the surprise is what moves them. Impact bars show how much a release usually matters.
How to read the result
- Above the forecast
- A figure better than forecast for the economy usually supports the currency.
- Below the forecast
- A figure worse than forecast for the economy usually weighs on the currency.
Going deeper
High-impact releases cluster around the same times each month. Several releases at the same minute can pull in different directions, so the reaction follows the one markets care about most at the time.
FAQs
- Why can the price move the “wrong” way?
- Prices already reflect the forecast, so markets react to the surprise, not the number itself. Other parts of the same release, revisions to earlier months or other news in the same hour can outweigh the headline figure, and a first move often reverses within the hour.
- Should I close my trade before the release?
- That is your decision; this page does not give advice. What is certain is that prices can jump in seconds around big releases, spreads widen, and a stop loss can close at a worse price than the one you set. Many traders check their position size and stop before the release.