US non-farm payrolls
Jobs added and the unemployment rate in the United States.
The basics
This report counts how many people found or lost work last month and what share of people looking for work have none: the unemployment rate.
A strong jobs market keeps spending and inflation up, which makes higher interest rates more likely. A weak one points the other way.
How to read the result
- Above the forecast
- More jobs than forecast, or lower unemployment, often lifts the USD.
- Below the forecast
- Fewer jobs than forecast, or higher unemployment, often weakens the USD.
Going deeper
For the unemployment rate, lower is the good surprise; for jobs added, higher is. When the two disagree, markets usually follow the jobs figure and wage growth.
The two previous months are revised every time, sometimes by more than the new month’s surprise. Average hourly earnings, in the same report, speak to inflation and can move markets as much as the headline.
FAQs
- Why can the price move the “wrong” way?
- Prices already reflect the forecast, so markets react to the surprise, not the number itself. Other parts of the same release, revisions to earlier months or other news in the same hour can outweigh the headline figure, and a first move often reverses within the hour.
- Should I close my trade before the release?
- That is your decision; this page does not give advice. What is certain is that prices can jump in seconds around big releases, spreads widen, and a stop loss can close at a worse price than the one you set. Many traders check their position size and stop before the release.