US average hourly earnings
How fast US pay is rising.
The basics
This measures how much pay per hour went up last month. Fast wage growth can keep inflation high, which matters for interest rates.
How to read the result
- Above the forecast
- Pay rising faster than forecast often lifts the US dollar.
- Below the forecast
- Pay rising slower than forecast often weakens the US dollar.
Going deeper
Changes in the mix of jobs distort it: if many low-paid workers lose jobs, the average rises without anyone earning more. The quarterly Employment Cost Index adjusts for this.
FAQs
- Why can the price move the “wrong” way?
- Prices already reflect the forecast, so markets react to the surprise, not the number itself. Other parts of the same release, revisions to earlier months or other news in the same hour can outweigh the headline figure, and a first move often reverses within the hour.
- Should I close my trade before the release?
- That is your decision; this page does not give advice. What is certain is that prices can jump in seconds around big releases, spreads widen, and a stop loss can close at a worse price than the one you set. Many traders check their position size and stop before the release.