US initial jobless claims
New claims for unemployment benefit last week.
The basics
Each week this counts how many people applied for unemployment benefit for the first time. It is the most up-to-date sign of layoffs.
How to read the result
- Above the forecast
- More claims than forecast point to rising layoffs; the US dollar often falls.
- Below the forecast
- Fewer claims than forecast point to a firm jobs market; the US dollar often rises.
Going deeper
Weekly numbers are noisy around holidays and storms; the four-week average shows the trend. Continuing claims show how fast people who lost jobs find new ones.
FAQs
- Why can the price move the “wrong” way?
- Prices already reflect the forecast, so markets react to the surprise, not the number itself. Other parts of the same release, revisions to earlier months or other news in the same hour can outweigh the headline figure, and a first move often reverses within the hour.
- Should I close my trade before the release?
- That is your decision; this page does not give advice. What is certain is that prices can jump in seconds around big releases, spreads widen, and a stop loss can close at a worse price than the one you set. Many traders check their position size and stop before the release.