US unemployment rate
Share of people looking for work who have none.
The basics
The unemployment rate is the share of people who want a job and are looking, but don’t have one. It comes from a survey of households, separate from the payrolls count of businesses.
How to read the result
- Above the forecast
- Unemployment above the forecast points to a weaker jobs market; the US dollar often falls.
- Below the forecast
- Unemployment below the forecast points to a tighter jobs market; the US dollar often rises.
Going deeper
A rise because more people start looking for work (the participation rate) is less worrying than a rise from job losses. The household survey is small, so a 0.1-point move can be noise.
FAQs
- Why can the price move the “wrong” way?
- Prices already reflect the forecast, so markets react to the surprise, not the number itself. Other parts of the same release, revisions to earlier months or other news in the same hour can outweigh the headline figure, and a first move often reverses within the hour.
- Should I close my trade before the release?
- That is your decision; this page does not give advice. What is certain is that prices can jump in seconds around big releases, spreads widen, and a stop loss can close at a worse price than the one you set. Many traders check their position size and stop before the release.