Fed Chair speeches
Hints about future US interest rates can move all markets.
The basics
The Chair of the Federal Reserve leads the committee that sets US interest rates. When the Chair speaks about the economy, markets listen for hints about the next decisions.
There is no number to compare with a forecast, so moves depend on tone: whether the Chair sounds more worried about inflation or about growth.
How to read the result
- Above the forecast
- A firmer tone on inflation (“more work to do”) often lifts the US dollar and weighs on shares and gold.
- Below the forecast
- A softer tone (“risks to jobs”) often weakens the US dollar and can support shares and gold.
Going deeper
Prepared remarks are released when the speech starts; questions afterwards often move markets more, because answers are less scripted. Speeches outside the blackout period before each meeting carry the most information.
FAQs
- Why can the price move the “wrong” way?
- Prices already reflect the forecast, so markets react to the surprise, not the number itself. Other parts of the same release, revisions to earlier months or other news in the same hour can outweigh the headline figure, and a first move often reverses within the hour.
- Should I close my trade before the release?
- That is your decision; this page does not give advice. What is certain is that prices can jump in seconds around big releases, spreads widen, and a stop loss can close at a worse price than the one you set. Many traders check their position size and stop before the release.